Belcourt, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

333
FXUS63 KBIS 051509
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1009 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for scattered light rain or freezing rain showers
  in northwest and central North Dakota this morning.

- Windy conditions expected Tuesday through Wednesday, with
  medium to high chances for light rain or snow.

- Except for western North Dakota on Tuesday, temperatures
  remain below normal through the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

For mid morning update only change was to bump winds up a bit
over the north behind the cold front, as observations are
coming in with some wind gusts around 35 to 40 mph. Remainder of
forecast is on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 702 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Aside from a possible few sprinkles, precipitation in central
North Dakota has not come to fruition, and appears very unlikely
to do so. We therefore have limited PoPs to 15 percent and have
greatly reduced the area of mentionable rain/freezing rain
chances in the forecast. In northwest North Dakota though, radar
is picking up enough reflectivity to warrant an introduction of
a 15 percent chance of light rain/freezing rain there, but
still not expecting more than a trace of accumulation.

Patchy fog has been percolating across southern North Dakota
overnight and early this morning, but appears to be very shallow
and has not been dense for a long duration at any given
location. Any lingering fog should quickly burn off an hour or
two after sunrise.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A clipper system embedded in northwest flow aloft is passing
through the Canadian prairie provinces early this morning. A
southern extension of mid level differential cyclonic vorticity
advection could provide enough forcing for light precipitation
from central North Dakota to the James River Valley this
morning, but there is uncertainty on whether there will be
enough deep layer moisture to support precipitation. The past
several runs of the HRRR and RAP have been very consistent with
a completely dry vs. low QPF solution, respectively. Any
precipitation that falls would likely be liquid on account of an
above freezing layer from just above the surface inversion to
around 1 km AGL. This would result in a conditional
precipitation type of freezing rain at most locations, with
surface temperatures broadly around 25 to 30. Given the
aforementioned moisture uncertainty, we will continue to only
advertise a 20 to 25 percent chance of light rain or freezing
rain this morning, with very little no impacts anticipated.

A cold front attendant to the clipper will drop into the state
from the northwest this morning, progressing southeastward
through the day. Light precipitation is currently observed along
the front from southeast Alberta through southern Saskatchewan,
but while earlier CAMs did project this could extend into North
Dakota, the cold front now appears more likely to outrun
forcing aloft, keeping western North Dakota dry. The cold front
is expected to bring gusty northwest winds across the state
through this afternoon, strongest from north central North
Dakota through the James River Valley where gusts could reach 35
mph. High temperatures this afternoon will be limited to the
mid and upper 30s where a deeper snowpack remains, and 40s
elsewhere. There is a low chance for a few afternoon and early
evening rain or snow showers clipping the eastern fringes of our
forecast area that would most likely produce only trace
accumulations.

A strong surface ridge will begin extending into the region
from the northwest tonight, setting up a baroclinic zone from
central Montana to central South Dakota. Model guidance
generally favors a narrow band of light snow developing along
the baroclinic zone late tonight into Monday morning, but it is
uncertain whether this would cut through southwest North Dakota.
The northern most solutions of the current suite of guidance
set the light snow up along the Highway 12 corridor. The rest of
western and central North Dakota should see a quiet but chilly
night with lows mostly in the teens to lower 20s. The upstream
surface high pressure will slide into the Red River Valley on
Monday, providing reinforcement for the unseasonably cold and
dry air mass arriving later today. Forecast highs on Monday are
limited to the mid and upper 20s over deeper snowpack (though
there could be significant melting today) and only increase to
around 40 along the Montana border. Monday night will remain
chilly, with lows in the teens and 20s.

From Tuesday through Wednesday, a potent upper level shortwave/
closed low will dig into British Columbia and eject from the
Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. A preceding low-
amplitude shortwave with strong isentropic ascent in the mid
layers could bring a band of light snow across central and
eastern North Dakota on Tuesday, with a short-duration at any
given location yielding only a dusting of snow at most. By
Tuesday afternoon, the surface pressure gradient will become
squeezed by high pressure over the western Great Lakes and
deepening low pressure over southern Alberta, resulting in
southerly winds around 20 to 30 mph with gusts near 40 mph.
Despite poor boundary layer mixing, the eastern fringes of the
upstream thermal ridge could sneak into western North Dakota by
late Tuesday afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb into the
50s, if not 60s. But elsewhere, it is more likely to be yet
another cooler day of highs in the 30s and 40s.

The cold front and upper low are forecast to cross the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Ensemble guidance is beginning to
consolidate on a common solution, but there is still uncertainty
in the latitudinal placement of the occluding low, with ECMWF
members tending to favor a more northern solution along or just
north of the Canadian border and the GEFS tending to favor a
more southern solution directly through North Dakota. The
northern solution would keep both chances for snow as a type and
higher QPF of any type farther north. The southern solution
would bring higher chances for snow farther south in the wrap-
around deformation band on Wednesday. Both solutions would
likely bring scattered rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
or two across the state Tuesday evening and night, possibly
mixing with or changing to snow on the back end, and with
greater certainty would bring gusty northwest winds across the
region through Wednesday. But the location of strongest winds
and magnitude thereof would also be dependent on the
aforementioned outcomes, with the southern solution favoring
both stronger winds south and lighter winds north when compared
to the northern solution. Despite the southern solution being
both cooler and wetter, snow threshold probabilities are
actually quite similar between the two outcomes, with only
medium chances for exceeding 1 inch of snow in the Turtle
Mountains area and low chances across the rest of northwest and
north central North Dakota.

Ensembles are coming into better agreement on the synoptic
pattern for the end of the work week, with a residual northwest
flow over the Northern Plains on Thursday transitioning to more
of a zonal flow on Friday as a cut-off low spins off the coast
of California. This is trending the forecast toward a drier
solution, with still well below normal temperatures favored on
Thursday followed by the start of a warming trend on Friday. For
next weekend, the big question is whether flow aloft will
remain zonal or turn southwesterly. A warming trend is still
favored in either case, with it just being a matter of near
average vs. above. Both outcomes would still keep precipitation
chances in the forecast over the weekend, but the southwest flow
pattern would increase probabilities at higher QPF thresholds.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 702 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Patchy fog remains possible across southern North Dakota early
this morning, but prevailing visibility restrictions are
unlikely. There could be a few stray showers across parts of the
state this morning, but the probability is not high enough to
mention in any TAF. MVFR ceilings will likely enter northern
North Dakota this morning and could briefly spread into southern
North Dakota later in the morning or early afternoon. MVFR
ceilings cannot be ruled out at times across north central and
eastern North Dakota this afternoon, but mostly expecting VFR to
prevail. A cold front crossing the state from northwest to
southeast this morning will turn winds to the northwest and
increase to around 15-20 kts with gusts around 30 kts in the
afternoon, strongest from around KMOT to KJMS. Winds should
relax this evening and turn more northerly.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...Hollan