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Belcourt, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Belcourt ND
National Weather Service Forecast for: Belcourt ND
Issued by: National Weather Service Bismarck, ND
Updated: 6:50 pm CDT Jul 17, 2025
 
Tonight

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers after 3am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the evening.
Mostly Cloudy
then Chance
Showers
Friday

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am.  Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 69. East wind 6 to 9 mph.
Chance
Showers then
Partly Sunny
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable  after midnight.
Mostly Clear

Saturday

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Southeast wind around 10 mph.
Mostly Cloudy
then Chance
Showers
Sunday

Sunday: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Southeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Showers
Likely
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Southeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Showers
Likely
Monday

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind around 10 mph.
Chance
T-storms
Monday
Night
Monday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Slight Chance
T-storms
Lo 53 °F Hi 69 °F Lo 51 °F Hi 76 °F Lo 56 °F Hi 74 °F Lo 60 °F Hi 78 °F Lo 59 °F

 

Tonight
 
A 30 percent chance of showers after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the evening.
Friday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 69. East wind 6 to 9 mph.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 51. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.
Saturday
 
Sunny, with a high near 76. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night
 
A 50 percent chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Southeast wind around 10 mph.
Sunday
 
Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Southeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Southeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind around 10 mph.
Monday Night
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. North wind 7 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
 
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 73. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Wednesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Belcourt ND.

Weather Forecast Discussion
161
FXUS63 KBIS 172313
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
613 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through
  Friday morning, and again Saturday night through Sunday. A
  few strong to severe storms are possible both tonight and
  Saturday night.

- Temperatures warm back closer to average this weekend into
  early next week.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Made some minor adjustments to pops, pushing the start time back
a bit and lowering the areal extent early this evening.
Otherwise, no significant changes to the going forecast.
Convection in Montana moving into ND still looks to be around
midnight or after, if it holds together.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Well below average temperatures continue from this morning,
especially under areas with cloud cover. A surface low and small
shortwave is setup in central Montana, with a warm front
extending east and south from it. Strong to severe storms are
possible as that front and wave slowly move east tonight (more
on that below). Lows tonight will be warmer than last night,
with the warm front entering and the high pressure leaving the
state. Expect lows in the upper 40s to upper 60s.


Severe storm potential tonight:

SPC has the southwest and south central in a marginal (level 1)
risk, with a slight (level 2) in a portion of four southwest
counties. Timing is about midnight to 6am CT, as the front and
wave move in. The MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg stays in Montana and
South Dakota, but we do have around 500 J/kg in most models.
Some of the CAMs have the 1000 J/kg contour close to the
southwest. The shear however is very high, we are looking at
50kts of shear. So if a storm can get an organized updraft it
should be able to sustain and produce hail up to ping pong size.
A challenge with this event is confidence and location. Most of
the CAMs have similar storm mode (multi-clusters) but the
locations are varying by about 2 counties north or south. Timing
is also slightly different but only by 1 hour. The average
consensus is storms moving in from Montana after midnight,
either grazing the southwest, or moving across the west into the
south central. Then these storms could linger in the central
and east until the wave fully moves out and into Minnesota by
late morning.

Friday will be warmer with highs in the 70s as zonal flows
allows the cooler air to move east. Friday will also be mostly
dry with light and variable winds as the surface low pressure
moves through the state. This weekend another shortwave and
upper level low sets up leading to more chances for strong to
severe storms Saturday evening and Sunday. Saturday again looks
like most of the 1000+ J/kg of CAPE stays west and south of our
area, but shear is around 40kts. SPC has the western part of the
state in a marginal for the time being. Saturday will also be
warmer with highs in the upper 70s.

Sunday the machine learning guidance has a level 1 risk across
most of the state. This time the CAPE axis is in the state. The
potential is there for CAPE to be over 2000 J/kg with 30-40kts
of shear. SPC has no day 4 outlook yet for this. Sunday in the
far west could reach the upper 80s which would add to the severe
threat. Dew points look to be in the low to mid 60s, which
would make sense that the CAPE could be that high then.
Sunday`s threat is from the diffluent flow over the state off
the shortwave to our west, and surface flow from the south. The
rest of the forecast looks to stay active with southwesterly
flow aloft and temperatures staying in the 80s. Sunday and
Monday could be a longer stretch of showers and thunderstorms so
QPF could be around 1 inch in the central and east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR conditions to begin the 00Z TAF period. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
evening, and also scattered thunderstorms move in from eastern
Montana after midnight. Convection may linger into the Morning
hours on Friday. Expect gusty and erratic winds with any
thunderstorms as well as MVFR cigs and visibilities. Late
tonight into Friday MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast to develop
over portions of western and much of central ND. MVFR to IFR
ceilings could linger through the morning with MVFR ceilings
into the afternoon at KBIS and KMOT and possibly through much of
the afternoon at KJMS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...TWH
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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